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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward script. It frequently acts as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the largest turnaround wins the prize. In practice, it sparks an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or simply the biggest shock.

However the latest field is distinctly unique. The list of contenders is unusually deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been messy, with reigning division winners fading and longtime also-rans improving together. Under an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a turbulent and entertaining year, he's competing with multiple other elite candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical vote could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been given the chance to showcase his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an offense constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to create magic out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost each decision – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the building with the level of expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a ordinary season, he would be the clear-cut choice. But this is not a typical year!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for sustained success. But he falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a given following his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. From the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

After an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller might have derailed the season in October. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has regressed since that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still