Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Each writes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
